One of the problems that I’ve started to have with virtually all the science fiction I’ve been reading recently is the optimistic outlooks for space-travel technologies while simultaneously holding pessimistic views for genetic and AI developments. This may just be the books I’ve been reading, but almost all sci-fi I read seems to involve humans the are physically very similar to us zipping around the galaxy within the next 100-200 years.
But if you were to look at these ideas based on realistic projections from current technologies, it’s much more likely that we will cease being physically anything like what we are now long before we are able to regularly visit other planets.
by liquidslave
It’s unfortunate, but ideas such as resusable single-stage-to-orbit craft (SSTO), permanent colonies on other planets, faster-than-light travel (FTL), and even frequent interplanetary travel in our own solar system are just not likely with any known or currently theorized technology.
SSTO is not feasible with current or theorized tech because it would require a vehicle which is 96% fuel just based on the physics of the thing. 96%! That leaves 4% for structure and payload. And that only gets you to orbit. At that point you’d have to refuel or transfer to another ship to go anywhere else.
by FTL is just a fantasy at this point. There are no plasubile theories on how such a thing would be possible using technologies that we may obtain in the next few centuries.
by robotography
Even interplanetary travel is pretty tough. We will probably be able to send a team to Mars in the near future, but even that is not without a very large risk. And we are not completely certain how we would shield the occupants against radiation or even land the craft once it gets there. And one mission does not mean much. The cost is so high and the returns so small, makes human exploration of the solar system is a romantic, but uneconomic idea. Robots are cheaper, faster, and fewer people care if they accidentally crash into the planet instead of landing on it.
by Jastro
In contrast, Moore’s Law alone makes it a virtual certainty that a desktop computer will have greater processing power than the human brain by 2035-2045. When combined with advances in nanotech, AI, and neural interfaces (these already exist in primitive forms), it becomes very likely that we will begin merging with our technology long before we are able to send people beyond the orbit of Jupiter.
The root of this is Ray Kurzwells theory that information technologies (processors, nanotech, AI, some medical tech) develop along an exponential curve, while more traditional discoveries in chemistry and physics are linear. By the middle of this century it is very likely that we will have human-level artificial intelligence and the ability to interface with it directly via a neural link. Add to that the advances in genetics and it’s a certainty we won’t exit this century looking anything like the way we did when we entered it.
For me the interesting extrapolation from this info-tech before space-tech idea is that humans as we know them may never leave the solar system. It seems to me that we will probably completely merge with our tech and transcend our biology before we develop the capability for interstellar travel.
by blaster219
And really, interstellar travel would be alot easier with having to support a biological being. Residing within a computer means that you would not have bring along food, water, or air. You wouldn’t have to limit the acceleration of the ship to a few G’s for human safety. You wouldn’t have to carry as much raditation shielding. You wouldn’t have to worry about getting bored, or limiting travel to the range reachable within a human lifespan.
Not having bodies, or at least leaving them in storage at home, would make reaching another star system an actual possibility. Possibly even with present technology. Voyager 1 and 2 could carry a computer, were launched in 1977, and they were still functioning when they exited the solar system in December 2007.
by g-na
So I for one welcome the prospect of becoming a cybernetic organism, because it’s the only way I’m going to get to see Alpha Centauri closer than this.
by novakreo
